Agentic commerce is no longer theoretical. OpenAI’s Instant Checkout launched in September 2025. PayPal, Mastercard, and Google deployed merchant infrastructure. By Q1 2026, AI shopping agents were moving real transaction volumes. The technology works. Consumers are adopting it.
Foot-traffic economics are finished.
Malls were built on a simple proposition. Aggregate retailers under one roof. Drive traffic. Capture rent from tenants who could not survive elsewhere. Location was scarce. High street rents were expensive. Malls offered alternatives at lower cost.
Agents destroy this.
When a consumer tells an AI agent “I need summer dresses,” the agent searches globally, compares prices, checks availability. Perfect price transparency. No geographic arbitrage. No geographic monopoly. No advantage to being in a mall.
A high-end fashion retailer in a Saudi Arabian mall competes against agents routing identical merchandise at lower prices. The agent has no rent. No staff. No inventory risk. The cost differential is insurmountable. Margins compress. The retailer abandons the mall first.
E-commerce eroded margins for category killers over 15 years. Tenants left. Mall operators raised rents on the remaining ones. This accelerated departures. Occupancy spiralled downward. Asset values collapsed.
Agents compress this timeline because they eliminate the need for physical retail altogether, not just some categories. The effect is faster in the Gulf. Digital adoption is higher. Consumer expectations around convenience are already established.
Current penetration in the Gulf is three to five per cent. By 2028, it hits 20-30 per cent. By 2030, 40-50 per cent. At 15-20 per cent penetration, the damage becomes irreversible. That is 18-36 months away.
Current mall valuations do not reflect this.
You cannot stop agents. You can only stop being a mall.
Agents cannot replace gaming. They cannot replicate a four-hour experience at a Disney park. Fine dining by Michelin-starred chefs survives. Wellness and spa services remain untouched. The social experience of leisure and entertainment stays irreducibly physical.
The GCC is not building malls. It is building what comes after.
In May 2025, Disney announced its seventh theme park in Abu Dhabi on Yas Island. Not a mall with a Disney store. A theme park. Warner Bros. World, Ferrari World, SeaWorld, and Yas Waterworld already operate there.
Ras Al Khaimah is building Wynn Al Marjan Island. A $5.1 billion integrated resort opening spring 2027. Gaming is the anchor. Gaming drives volume for 22 restaurants, 15,000 sqm of retail, a marina, a five-star spa, entertainment venues. The retail is incidental. Customers are already committed to spending hours on site.
Saudi Arabia deployed The Red Sea Project. Fifty hotels across 22 islands and six inland sites. 8,000 rooms. This is destination infrastructure, not retail aggregation.
NEOM is building Trojena, a mountain leisure destination. Sindalah, a luxury island with 38 restaurants, 51 retail outlets, a golf course, sports club. Hotels opening through 2026.
Dubai launched the Dubai Program for Gaming 2033. Not a mall. An ecosystem. Game development, esports, digital content creation. Over 350 gaming companies operate in Dubai.
Abu Dhabi is hosting IAAPA Expo Middle East in March 2026. The world’s largest attractions and entertainment industry trade show. That signals what the region is actually building.
None of this is a mall.
Demographics determine survival.
In traditional malls, anchor retailers drove footfall. Footfall justified secondary retail at premium rents.
In leisure destinations, the entertainment anchor drives a specific type of visitor. That visitor profile determines what retail actually sells.
Yas Island draws 500 million income-qualified visitors within four-hour flight radius. Middle East, Africa, India, Asia, Europe. A family from Mumbai has different retail expectations than one from London. Different price points on luxury goods. Different dining preferences. Different beauty and wellness needs.
Wynn Al Marjan Island is not bringing generic luxury retail. It is curating retail around the actual demographic footfall it attracts. Michelin-starred dining but also regional cuisines. Rolex and Hermès for luxury anchors. Secondary retail serves the specific demographics visiting.
The Red Sea Project and NEOM are doing the same. High-net-worth visitors from across Asia, Middle East, Africa. Retail that works is retail serving those specific demographics, not generic Western brands at premium rents.
If 40 per cent of your leisure visitors are from the sub-continent, your retail has to reflect that. Fashion at premium rents without cultural curation fails. Curated jewellery, beauty, and regional retail concepts succeed.
Dining anchors shift based on who is actually walking through your door. Beauty and wellness offerings follow. Luxury retail curation adjusts.
Traditional malls could ignore this because retail was primary. Leisure destinations cannot. The demographic composition of your footfall determines your entire secondary retail ecosystem.
Generic leisure destinations fail. The ones that work understand their actual visitors and build retail around what those visitors actually buy.
For mall operators, there are two outcomes. Transform your property into a leisure destination where retail serves actual visitors. Or watch it become worthless.
Agent adoption will hit critical thresholds in less than two years. By 2028, your occupancy reflects market reality. Asset values adjust. Debt covenants break.
Swap 40-50 per cent of your mall footprint from commodity retail to F&B and entertainment. Anchor on experiences that drive specific demographics. Then build retail around what those demographics actually need.
You stop being a mall. You become a leisure destination where retail serves the primary experience.
You have 18 months.